Economic collapse in India and Agriculture
What will happen if there is an economic collapse in India? Here we will consider how the people will react there is an economic collapse in India causing food shortage, starvation, huge unemployment, huge government debts and deficits, loss of government control on it's people in the second most populated country in this world.
India is more into Globalization. The economy and trade of India are more linked with other developing or developed countries which it can't detach itself which is still growing exponentially with FDI and liberalization policies that's been adopted by the government of India to attract more investors from abroad and to increase employment and production capacity of India. So, any fluctuation in the international trade or economy would directly effect the economy of India. In spite of some policies been made for this contingency, there effectiveness in defending India from world economic fluctuations can be seen in 2008 and 2012 global economic crisis. The 2008 economic crisis which effected the software economy and employment and 2012 economic crisis came with trade collapse with European Union and associate countries. India could withstand 2012 crisis cause India mostly runs on trade deficit if software sector is kept aside.
The reason why India could able to sustain the big jolts being a developing nation and poor populous country is cause of its mixed economy. If only it had to follow the policy of rugged individualism like in US then either its people has to die of starvation during crisis or has to revolt against government. These both doesn't happen on massive scale to be noted because some significant force is protecting India from all these. Though India has kept some massive cuts after economic reforms of 1991 following the guidelines of WB and IMF, still most of the people in India are depending on subsidies because of its huge middle class and lower middle class population. Subsidies are running in the country in some form like in election promises or to save its people from exodus and death due to starvation, now that we are globalised and everywhere we have prying eyes of different organisation to get world's attention on it. So, what is that force that is saving from the country from all these jolts and what might happen in future?
Agriculture. Supporting the work force of 48.8% and actually declined from 56.7% from last five years. Huge amount of cheap labour force is employed there. If there is something that will strangle it is Indian monsoons which are so unpredictable. Agricultural production in India is still localised not globalised and nobody stops eating cause the lost their job. Though there will be decline in the share of agriculture in overall GDP but it is hugely effected by seasons than crisis and when ever there is a good season, it will prosper and the huge labour force in India still keep living on agriculture so, usually it will keep the huge unemployment in check cause more than 85% of the Indian employment is Informal. So, even in the crisis the unemployment is kept in check under 10~20%. The irony is still India is short of food production for it's people. It still need more agricultural labour. The situation has changed now. Now, due to the social trend or cultural affinity or due to drastic changes in the climate and obvious risks involving in agriculture and need for improvement of life, people are moving from villages to town finding better place as daily labour in cities than as a agricultural labour in village. This has cause around 30 million people to move from agriculture to other works in cities from 2010 to 2015 increasing the "Ghettos" on the outskirts of every city in India. If this has to continue, when the next crisis comes, the effect won't be mild on the people of India. there will be severe food crisis especially hard for the migrated people who can't cope up with he daily wage for a good full meal and shelter. There would be serious unemployment. Given the present economic situation, getting out of crisis is easy but what might happen during the crisis is important to consider. There would be death due to starvation if the crisis prolong due to shortage of food and fiscal deficit to buy food, thought subsidies and initiated. There would be more educated angry unemployed men who would be already thinking how efficient they can deal the crisis if they are given a chance and looking for a opportunity for revolution or sit patient. People might succumb to violence due to sudden poverty strike. Some organisations may instigate violence against government creating chaos and foreign aid come to India to save the biggest democracy. Whatever happens, thought it is said that government makes plans to be the most effective one, it is time for them to consider the contingencies of populous developing countries like India and make necessary preparations to save democracy and people not with force but with strategic measures taken in advance.
There must be a balance of employment in all the sectors of the society and their balance in proportion in GDP. If it was lost, it is likely that a jolt to one prominent sector will throw the whole country into chaos. Not that we have to introduce a policy like Common Agriculture Policy by EU in 1980 and Communistic policies to increase the share of GDP share of agriculture and Hardware Industry. It's the work of think tanks. There should be a need for more independent economic structure and balance even in Globalisation.
The reason why India could able to sustain the big jolts being a developing nation and poor populous country is cause of its mixed economy. If only it had to follow the policy of rugged individualism like in US then either its people has to die of starvation during crisis or has to revolt against government. These both doesn't happen on massive scale to be noted because some significant force is protecting India from all these. Though India has kept some massive cuts after economic reforms of 1991 following the guidelines of WB and IMF, still most of the people in India are depending on subsidies because of its huge middle class and lower middle class population. Subsidies are running in the country in some form like in election promises or to save its people from exodus and death due to starvation, now that we are globalised and everywhere we have prying eyes of different organisation to get world's attention on it. So, what is that force that is saving from the country from all these jolts and what might happen in future?
Agriculture. Supporting the work force of 48.8% and actually declined from 56.7% from last five years. Huge amount of cheap labour force is employed there. If there is something that will strangle it is Indian monsoons which are so unpredictable. Agricultural production in India is still localised not globalised and nobody stops eating cause the lost their job. Though there will be decline in the share of agriculture in overall GDP but it is hugely effected by seasons than crisis and when ever there is a good season, it will prosper and the huge labour force in India still keep living on agriculture so, usually it will keep the huge unemployment in check cause more than 85% of the Indian employment is Informal. So, even in the crisis the unemployment is kept in check under 10~20%. The irony is still India is short of food production for it's people. It still need more agricultural labour. The situation has changed now. Now, due to the social trend or cultural affinity or due to drastic changes in the climate and obvious risks involving in agriculture and need for improvement of life, people are moving from villages to town finding better place as daily labour in cities than as a agricultural labour in village. This has cause around 30 million people to move from agriculture to other works in cities from 2010 to 2015 increasing the "Ghettos" on the outskirts of every city in India. If this has to continue, when the next crisis comes, the effect won't be mild on the people of India. there will be severe food crisis especially hard for the migrated people who can't cope up with he daily wage for a good full meal and shelter. There would be serious unemployment. Given the present economic situation, getting out of crisis is easy but what might happen during the crisis is important to consider. There would be death due to starvation if the crisis prolong due to shortage of food and fiscal deficit to buy food, thought subsidies and initiated. There would be more educated angry unemployed men who would be already thinking how efficient they can deal the crisis if they are given a chance and looking for a opportunity for revolution or sit patient. People might succumb to violence due to sudden poverty strike. Some organisations may instigate violence against government creating chaos and foreign aid come to India to save the biggest democracy. Whatever happens, thought it is said that government makes plans to be the most effective one, it is time for them to consider the contingencies of populous developing countries like India and make necessary preparations to save democracy and people not with force but with strategic measures taken in advance.
There must be a balance of employment in all the sectors of the society and their balance in proportion in GDP. If it was lost, it is likely that a jolt to one prominent sector will throw the whole country into chaos. Not that we have to introduce a policy like Common Agriculture Policy by EU in 1980 and Communistic policies to increase the share of GDP share of agriculture and Hardware Industry. It's the work of think tanks. There should be a need for more independent economic structure and balance even in Globalisation.
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